A Change Of Plans
June 12, 2026
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A Change Of Plans
Long term planning is obsolete. Or maybe I should say how we define Long Term is no longer accurate. As business owners and entrepreneurs planning is a way of life. I’ve always been a big fan of having a plan. Whenever I invested in real estate I always had a plan for what I would do with it(renovations, tenants, lease, etc.), how long I would keep it, and when I would sell and for how much. And of course there is planning for the unexpected. I love plans. In business planning and career planning we are always taught to plan for the long term. Every business should have a 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, 20 year plan. And there’s that incredibly annoying question that every person conducting a job interview loves to ask. “Where do you see yourself in 5 years?” I always wanted to say something like “I see myself no longer working in this crappy job you’re offering me!” Even though I have remarkable self restraint and never gave that answer I think you can see why I am basically unemployable, as are most entrepreneurs.
Exponential Progress
So why is long term planning obsolete? Simply, because the pace of progress has increased to the point that anything beyond 2 years is too unpredictable. I would say that today a 5 year plan is barely doable and anything beyond that is probably fantasy. Think about the software you used 5 years ago. Is it the same software you’re using today? The name might be the same but the actual program, buying model, and the delivery method have all changed. And it probably looks and works nothing like it did when you started using it. To make things more difficult, as soon as we subscribe to a new app another one pops up that is better. This seems to be a weekly occurrence. And in a year or less the one you just subscribed to will change, possibly so much so that you will have to relearn a sizeable portion of it in order to keep up. Is this bad? No. The apps we use in our business are amazing and keep getting better. But there is a huge temptation to switch to the other guys who created something better. But be patient.
Just 2 weeks ago we decided to leave one subscription platform we were using for our business and go to another one that we decided was better. And a week after we made the switch the old platform announced a big shift and complete remake of their technology. Luckily, the tech wasn’t the main reason we switched. Anyway, in a few weeks I’m sure the new platform we switched to will be forced to make similar upgrades and we will be fine.
Plan On Changing How We Plan
I’m thinking maybe Change Management Consulting might be a good business to own in 5 years. Or maybe tomorrow. So when does the rate of progress outstrip our ability to keep up? I think that’s already started. We should probably start today to plan on changing how we plan. 2 years is the new 20 years. We should consider 2 years to be long term and any plans beyond 2 years, at least for a small business, should probably be considered disposable. Personally I feel confident in saying that year 2 should be considered extremely flexible. And if you have a business that employs people I would like to suggest a new position- Change Manager. Someone whose job it is to keep up with new technology related to your business and make sure the relevant team members are competent in using it. Think about how important that could be in keeping your employees productive.
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